The Biggest Risk of All - Keir Crozier


The United Kingdom must return a Conservative government in December’s upcoming General Election. The alternative is quite simply unthinkable: Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street as leader of a Lib-Lab-SNP coalition, second referendums on Scottish Independence and Brexit, and economic disaster in addition to an exodus of Britain’s Jewish community and the compromising of our national security. In all probability, the Conservatives will require an outright majority if such a scenario is to be averted. The only party (the DUP) who could have been expected to prop up a minority Tory government is now unlikely to do so, given their refusal to support the new Withdrawal Agreement, whilst the Brexit Party will, in all likelihood, win no seats.


The prospects of the Labour party winning a majority are slim to nil, meaning that a coalition would need to be formed with the Liberal Democrats and/or the SNP. Of the two, it seems likely that the latter would be preferable to Corbyn’s Labour, being similarly committed to high spending, high taxes and high borrowing, compared to Jo Swinson’s comparatively economically dry Liberal Democrats. The price of such a bargain would be a guarantee of a second referendum on Scottish independence, something which is unlikely to deter Corbyn if it results in his finally becoming Prime Minister. Even if, however, the SNP were to win in all 59 Scottish constituencies and Labour were to maintain its share of seats from 2017, any ensuing coalition would still fall short of a Parliamentary majority. In such a scenario Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the SDLP (if, as expected, Claire Hanna wins in South Belfast) could likely be expected to support the Lab-SNP coalition, but in reality this is still unlikely to be enough to secure a parliamentary majority, given that Labour seem virtually certain to lose seats based on current polling whilst a clean sweep for the SNP in Scotland seems unlikely. Therefore any coalition is likely to require the support of the Liberal Democrats. Whilst there is the possibility that the Lib Dems may demand unilateral revocation of Article 50 as their price for becoming coalition partners, or even involvement in a confidence and supply deal, it is more likely that they would be willing to accept the offer of a second referendum – something which is Labour policy anyway. Leave supporters should not be fooled however; any such referendum will be between Remain and a deal that entails staying in the Customs Union and Single Market and quite possibly maintaining freedom of movement – in other words, Brexit in Name Only. Indeed this would be worse than Remain, given that we would lose our voice at the EU table whilst having to continue to follow their laws. Make no mistake, anything other than a Conservative government means the end of Brexit and with it the admission that Britain is, at best, only a democracy up to the point at which her people vote the “wrong” way.


A Labour-led coalition would also be an economic disaster for the UK. Based on the government’s estimates, Labour’s spending plans would cost the country £1.2 trillion over the course of the next parliament through their ambitious renationalization programme as well as plans, among other things, to introduce a four-day working week and a non-means-tested universal basic income. Admittedly, at the time of writing Labour’s manifesto has not yet been published and it remains to be seen whether all of their ideas mooted thus far are actually included, but nevertheless it is likely to represent the biggest government spending spree the country has ever seen. This, combined with their persecution of the rich (don’t let little issues such as the fact that the wealthiest 1% pay 27% of all taxes in Britain inconvenience you, after all…) will result in capital flight and unemployment the proportions of which will take generations from which to recover. Jeremy Corbyn, after all, thinks there ought to be no billionaires. Well, if he makes it into Number 10, there won’t be. Because they’ll all have left.


If the thought of such economic illiterates in government wasn’t frightening enough, we should remind ourselves of the shameful personal character of the Labour leader and many of those around him. Labour’s failure to crack down on anti-Semitism in the party – along with Mr. Corbyn’s well-known history of support for groups including Hamas and Hezbollah - has led to a situation where 87% of British Jews believe that Corbyn is anti-Semitic, whilst 47% said they would “seriously consider” emigrating if Corbyn becomes prime-minister. The idea that Britain in 2019 could become the first Western European country since the end of the Second World War to see Jews fleeing en masse in fear for their own safety would, not so long ago, have been unthinkable. It remains shameful that we even have to consider the possibility of such a prospect.


This is to say nothing of the detrimental affect which a Corbyn government would have on our security. Australia has already indicated that Britain could be excluded from the “Five Eyes” spy alliance comprising the UK, USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada in the event of a Corbyn victory. More countries could reasonably be expected to follow suit in withdrawing sharing of intelligence and security cooperation given the Labour leadership’s long record of support for terrorist organisations and hostile regimes, not to mention that under a Corbyn government Diane Abbott - a woman who called for the abolition of Special Branch and MI5 and voted against the proscribing of al-Qaeda - would be effectively in charge of our national security.


The thought of the above unfolding ought to fill any right-minded person with horror, but the truth is the nightmare scenario I have painted, whereby the largest democratic mandate in our country’s history is ignored, the Union threatened, the economy obliterated, British Jews depart as refugees and our national security is diminished as our allies shun us under the watch of a terrorist supporting Marxist government risks becoming a reality. It must not be allowed to happen. Britain must vote to return a Conservative government on the 12th of December.

Keir Crozier is a student of History and Politics at Queen's University Belfast and Honorary Secretary of the Queen's Conservative and Unionist Society.


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2020